Voters in Arkansas, Mississippi and Illinois will cast ballots in the final three primaries of the month, closing out the first chapter of the 2026 midterm election cycle before a six-week pause in primary activity across the country. Arkansas holds its primary on March 3, Mississippi on March 10 and Illinois on March 17. After Illinois votes, no other state holds a primary until Indiana and Ohio on May 5. The three states together feature two U.S. Senate incumbents defending their seats, one wide-open Senate contest to replace a 30-year incumbent, a governor’s race and a combined total of 21 U.S. House seats. The U.S. Senate currently stands at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. The outcomes in these three states will not alter that balance on primary day, but the nominees chosen in March will compete in the November 3 general election, where Senate control remains in play.

Illinois: The Most Competitive Race West of the Appalachians

Illinois closes the March primary window on March 17 with the most consequential Senate race of the three states — an open seat fight to succeed Dick Durbin, who is retiring after 30 years in the U.S. Senate and 44 years in Congress. Durbin, first elected to the Senate in 1996, announced on April 23, 2025, that he would not seek a sixth term. His retirement opened the first Illinois Senate vacancy since 2010 and the first contest for this Class II seat since Durbin himself won it nearly three decades ago.

Illinois has not sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Mark Kirk lost his seat in 2016. The real contest on March 17 is the Democratic primary, where three prominent candidates are competing for the nomination with the general election widely expected to favor whoever emerges.

U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi of Schaumburg entered the race on May 7, 2025, after transferring $19.3 million from his congressional campaign account. He has since expanded that advantage into a dominant fundraising position, reporting $28.5 million in total campaign funds through the Federal Election Commission’s year-end filing — accounting for approximately 75 percent of all money raised across the 16-candidate field. Krishnamoorthi, who has represented Illinois’ 8th Congressional District since 2017, has secured endorsements from the Teamsters and the American Federation of Government Employees. Born in New Delhi and raised in Peoria, he would become the 10th person of Asian American, Pacific Islander or Native Hawaiian descent ever to serve in the U.S. Senate if elected.

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton was the first Democrat to announce her candidacy, entering the race on April 24, 2025, one day after Durbin’s retirement announcement, and receiving the immediate endorsement of Gov. JB Pritzker. Stratton has raised $3.2 million and holds endorsements from Sen. Tammy Duckworth, House Speaker Emanuel Welch and EMILY’s List. She has pledged to accept no corporate PAC money. Pritzker separately contributed $5 million to an independent pro-Stratton political action committee in December 2025. Stratton has the deepest institutional support of the three frontrunners, backed by much of the Illinois Democratic establishment and a broad coalition of state legislators.

U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly of Matteson entered the race on May 6, 2025. Kelly, who has represented Illinois’ 2nd Congressional District since 2013 and served as chair of the Illinois Democratic Party from 2021 to 2022, has raised $2.9 million with $1.6 million cash on hand. She carries the endorsement of the Congressional Black Caucus PAC. If elected, Kelly, Stratton or fellow candidate Awisi Bustos would make history as one of three Black women simultaneously serving in the U.S. Senate, joining Sens. Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland and Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware. Kelly has campaigned on her record representing a district she describes as uniquely urban, suburban and rural.

All three leading candidates debated on January 26, 2026, in a forum hosted by the Chicago Sun-Times, WBEZ and the University of Chicago, and again on January 29 in a forum hosted by WLS-TV and Univision. Seven additional Democrats appear on the ballot, none of whom has matched the fundraising or endorsement totals of the three frontrunners.

On the Republican side, six candidates are competing for the nomination, led by Don Tracy, former chair of the Illinois Republican Party from 2021 to 2024, who has raised $2.1 million, the majority of which came from personal loans to his campaign. Tracy has been endorsed by former Sen. Mark Kirk. The remaining Republican candidates are Casey Chlebek, Jeannie Evans, Pamela Denise Long, R. Cary Capparelli and Jimmy Lee Tillman II. The Republican nominee will face a substantial structural disadvantage in the general election in a state that has voted Democratic for Senate in every election since 2002.

Kelly’s and Krishnamoorthi’s Senate campaigns have vacated their congressional seats, creating competitive open-seat primaries in IL-02 and IL-08 on the same March 17 ballot. All 17 Illinois House seats are up for election. Early voting began February 5, 2026.

Arkansas: Cotton’s Fortress and Sanders’ Second Term

Arkansas opens the three-state primary sequence on March 3, with U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton seeking a third term and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders running for re-election to a second. Neither faces a serious challenge from within their own party, but both seats will be contested in the November 3 general election.

Cotton, first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020, enters the primary with $9.6 million cash on hand, according to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, a figure more than three times what he carried into his 2020 race. He has secured endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Sanders, Lt. Gov. Leslie Rutledge, Attorney General Tim Griffin, Secretary of State Cole Jester and all four Arkansas House members — Rick Crawford, Steve Womack, French Hill and Bruce Westerman. Cotton serves as chair of the Senate Republican Conference and the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Two Republicans are challenging Cotton in the March 3 primary. Micah Ashby of Bradford is a pastor who describes herself as a constitutional conservative. Jeb Little of Harrison is a state trooper. Neither has held elected office. Both have focused their campaigns on arguments that Cotton has not adequately represented Arkansas despite his national profile.

The Democratic primary features two candidates with sharply different backgrounds. Hallie Shoffner of Little Rock is a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer who holds degrees from Vanderbilt and the Clinton School of Public Service. She raised $1 million between July and December 2025 and has centered her campaign on agricultural policy, the cost of living and labor issues, describing the closure of her family’s 2,000-acre Jackson County soybean farm as her motivation to run. Ethan Dunbar is the mayor of Lewisville, a town of approximately 900 residents in Lafayette County, and a retired Army command sergeant major with more than 30 years of military service. No Democrat has won a statewide Arkansas race since 2010. The seat is rated safely Republican.

Sanders is running for a second term in the governor’s mansion, where she has no Republican primary opponent. She was elected in 2022 by a margin of 27.7 percentage points, becoming the first woman elected governor of Arkansas. She previously served as White House Press Secretary from 2017 to 2019. Her campaign has reported $4.2 million cash on hand.

The Democratic gubernatorial primary features State Sen. Fred Love of Mabelvale and Supha Xayprasith-Mays of Bentonville. Love, who has served in the Arkansas legislature since 2011 and is term-limited from seeking re-election to his Senate seat, has approximately $3,000 cash on hand. Xayprasith-Mays, a businesswoman and philanthropist who ran in the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial primary and received five percent of the vote, has approximately $2,200. The winner will face Sanders in November. Arkansas has not had a Democratic governor since Mike Beebe left office in 2015.

In Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District, incumbent Rep. French Hill faces a Republican primary challenge from Chase McDowell, chairman of U.S. Term Limits. Democrat Chris Jones, who lost to Sanders in the 2022 governor’s race by 27.7 points, is running in the general election. In AR-04, incumbent Rep. Bruce Westerman faces no Republican primary opposition. The Democratic primary in AR-04 features Steven O’Donnell and James Russell. The March 3 primary also includes statewide races for Attorney General, Treasurer, Auditor, Secretary of State and an open Land Commissioner seat, with the current commissioner, Tommy Land, term-limited.

Mississippi: Hyde-Smith Defends, Democrats Eye an Unlikely Prize

Mississippi holds its primary on March 10, with U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith defending her seat against a primary challenge and a Democratic field hoping to compete in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since John Stennis won re-election in 1982.

Hyde-Smith, a native of Brookhaven, was appointed to the Senate in 2018 by then-Gov. Phil Bryant to replace retiring Sen. Thad Cochran. She won a special election later that year and won a full six-year term in 2020, defeating Democrat Mike Espy on both occasions. She is the first woman elected to represent Mississippi in Congress. Trump has endorsed her re-election, calling her “100% MAGA“ in a Truth Social post. Her endorsers include Gov. Tate Reeves, Sen. Roger Wicker and all three Mississippi Republican House members — Trent Kelly, Michael Guest and Mike Ezell. She enters the primary with $2.5 million cash on hand.

Her Republican primary opponent is Sarah Adlakha, a physician and business owner who has lived on the Mississippi Gulf Coast for 13 years after being born in Chicago. Adlakha has made transparency, term limits and a pledge to accept no lobbyist money the central themes of her campaign. She reports $122,000 cash on hand. Adlakha has argued that Hyde-Smith has grown disconnected from Mississippi constituents, while Hyde-Smith’s campaign has pointed to the senator’s committee assignments on Senate Appropriations and Senate Agriculture as evidence of her effectiveness for the state. The last incumbent senator in Mississippi to lose a re-election bid did so in 1942.

Mississippi holds an open primary, meaning any registered voter may choose either party’s ballot on March 10. A runoff is scheduled for April 7 if no candidate receives a majority. The general election is November 3, with a general election runoff set for December 1 if needed.

Three Democrats are competing in the Democratic primary: Scott Colom, the district attorney for Mississippi’s Golden Triangle region based in Columbus; Albert Littell; and Priscilla W. Till. Ty Pinkins is running as an independent and will appear on the November 3 general election ballot regardless of primary outcomes.

All four Mississippi House seats are up for election. Incumbents Trent Kelly (MS-1), Michael Guest (MS-3) and Mike Ezell (MS-4) are running for re-election. MS-2, the state’s majority-minority district currently held by veteran Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson, who has represented the seat since 1993, features the only competitively watched House primary in the state. Mississippi does not hold a governor’s race in even-numbered years. Gov. Tate Reeves was re-elected in 2023 and is not on the 2026 ballot.

What Happens After March 17

When Illinois polls close on the evening of March 17, the first chapter of the 2026 midterm primary season will be complete. Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas voted March 3. Mississippi votes March 10. Illinois votes March 17. The next primaries anywhere in the country are Indiana and Ohio on May 5 — a six-week pause before the calendar accelerates toward November.

In Illinois, the Democratic nominee will be decided and the general election campaign to hold Durbin’s seat will begin. In Arkansas, Cotton and Sanders will be confirmed as their party’s nominees and will begin the general election campaign in a state where Republicans have held every statewide office since 2015. In Mississippi, Hyde-Smith will either have turned back Adlakha’s challenge or faced an outcome that would be the first of its kind in the state in more than 80 years.

Voters in all three states can find registration information, polling locations and identification requirements at their state election offices: Arkansas Secretary of State (sos.arkansas.gov), Mississippi Secretary of State (sos.ms.gov) and the Illinois State Board of Elections (elections.il.gov). The general election in all three states is November 3, 2026.

On November 3, 2026, American voters will elect all 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, 35 U.S. senators, and 36 state governors — without a presidential candidate on the ballot. These are the midterm elections, held at the midpoint of every presidential term since the Constitution took effect in 1789. Before November, however, a separate and equally consequential process begins: the primaries.

In Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, primary voting begins March 3, 2026. Those primaries will determine which candidates carry each party’s banner into the November general election. And that general election will determine which party controls the levers of power in Washington starting January 2027.

What follows is a factual account of what midterm elections are, how the primary system works, and what concretely hangs in the balance when American voters go to the polls this fall.

What Are Midterm Elections?

The United States Constitution structures federal elections on two separate cycles. Under Article I, members of the House of Representatives serve two-year terms, meaning all 435 seats are on the ballot in every even-numbered year — including years when no presidential election takes place. Senators serve six-year terms, and Article I divides the Senate into three classes whose elections are staggered, so that approximately one-third of the chamber faces voters every two years.

The elections that fall at the midpoint of a president’s four-year term — held in November of years divisible by two but not by four — are known as midterm elections. They have been held continuously since 1789. In 2026, that means voters will choose all 435 House members, 35 senators, and 36 governors on a single Election Day, November 3, with no presidential race on the same ballot.

Midterm elections consistently draw lower voter participation than presidential elections. In presidential years over the past six decades, national voter turnout has averaged between 50 and 60 percent of eligible voters. In midterm years, that figure drops to approximately 40 percent — a gap of roughly 15 to 20 percentage points. In 2014, turnout fell to 36.4 percent of eligible voters, the lowest figure recorded since 1942. That structural difference in participation shapes the outcome: in lower-turnout elections, the composition of who shows up matters more than in high-turnout presidential years.

The Congress elected in a midterm serves alongside the sitting president for the final two years of his term. When the majority in either chamber changes parties, it fundamentally alters what the president can and cannot accomplish legislatively. Midterm governors, meanwhile, control state budgets, state policy, and in many states the redistricting process that redraws congressional maps after each decennial census.

The Historical Pattern: What Eighty Years of Results Show

The most consistent pattern in modern American electoral history is this: the party that holds the White House loses ground in midterm elections. Since the end of World War II in 1945, there have been 20 midterm elections. In 18 of them — 90 percent — the president’s party lost seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The average loss across those 20 cycles is 26 House seats and four Senate seats.

Political scientists describe the dynamic as a thermostatic effect: voters who supported the president two years earlier become harder to mobilize, while voters who opposed him tend to be more energized to turn out. The result, borne out in the data across eight decades, is a consistent structural disadvantage for the party in power at midterm time.

Three recent midterm cycles illustrate the pattern. In 2014, during President Barack Obama‘s second term, Republicans gained nine Senate seats — the largest single-cycle gain in the Senate since 1980 — bringing their total to 54 seats to Democrats‘ 46. Republicans also gained 13 House seats, pushing their total to 247 — the largest House majority for either party since 1928. Combined with their gains in 2010, Democrats lost 77 House seats over Obama‘s two midterm cycles.

In 2018, during President Donald Trump‘s first term, Democrats gained 41 House seats — the largest single-cycle gain for either party since 1974 — flipping the House to Democratic control with a final count of 235 to 199. In the Senate, however, Republicans gained two seats, extending their majority to 53 to 47, in part because Democrats were defending a disproportionate number of seats in states Trump had carried in 2016.

In 2022, during President Joe Biden‘s first term, Republicans gained nine House seats, flipping the House to a final count of 222 to 213. Democrats, however, gained one Senate seat, ending with a 51 to 49 majority. Both 2018 and 2022 produced split results — one chamber moving one direction, the other moving the opposite — a pattern made possible by the Senate‘s staggered elections and uneven state-by-state terrain.

The pattern has held with near-uniformity since World War II, with only two exceptions. In 1998, President Bill Clinton‘s Democrats gained five House seats during Republican-led impeachment proceedings against Clinton — a result widely attributed to public opposition to the impeachment effort and a strong national economy. In 2002, President George W. Bush‘s Republicans gained eight House seats in the first election following the September 11, 2001 attacks, when Bush‘s approval rating reached 90 percent.

The 2026 midterms carry a distinction that sets them apart from every election held in the past 132 years. They are the first midterms held during a non-consecutive second presidential term since 1894, when President Grover Cleveland — who lost his reelection bid in 1888 and won the presidency back in 1892 — faced the voters at the midpoint of that second, non-consecutive term. The pattern held: Cleveland‘s Democrats lost more than 100 House seats in 1894, one of the most severe midterm losses in American history.

How Primaries Work — and Why They Matter

Before any candidate appears on a November general election ballot, each major party must first select its nominee through a primary election. Primaries are intraparty contests in which registered voters choose which candidate will represent their party in the fall. The winner of each party’s primary advances to face the other party’s nominee — and any independent or third-party candidates — in the general election.

States structure their primaries in one of two broad formats. In closed primaries, only voters registered with a given party may participate in that party’s contest. In open primaries, any registered voter may participate in either party’s primary, regardless of their own party registration. Some states use hybrid systems with varying rules for unaffiliated voters.

Several states, including Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi, require a candidate to win an outright majority — more than 50 percent of the vote — to claim the nomination. If no candidate clears that threshold in the primary, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff election held several weeks later. That runoff, not the primary itself, determines the nominee. The requirement for a majority rather than a plurality can significantly extend the primary calendar and increase campaign costs.

The 2026 primary calendar begins on March 3, when Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas hold their primaries. Mississippi follows on March 10, and Illinois on March 17. Dozens of additional states hold primaries through the spring and into August, with the final contests concluding approximately two months before Election Day.

The Texas Senate primary offers a concrete illustration of the dynamics that primaries introduce. Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces a primary challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton. In 2023, the Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach Paxton on charges that included bribery and abuse of office. The Texas Senate subsequently acquitted Paxton on all charges. The episode remains a central element of the primary contest. The outcome of the Cornyn-Paxton primary will determine which Republican carries the party into the general election — and that choice carries implications for the party’s competitiveness in November. What energizes a party’s primary electorate and what is required to win a general election are not always identical, a tension that plays out in primaries across the country in every election cycle.

What Senate Control Actually Means

The U.S. Senate currently consists of 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. That 47 includes two independents — Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Sen. Angus King of Maine — who caucus with the Democratic Party for organizational purposes. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach a majority. Republicans can lose no more than two seats and retain control.

Whichever party holds the majority controls all committee chairmanships. Committee chairs determine which legislation receives hearings, which bills are advanced to the floor for a vote, and the pace and scope of congressional oversight. Legislation that never receives a committee hearing never reaches the full Senate floor. That gating function gives the majority party substantial influence over the legislative agenda independent of the outcome of any particular floor vote.

Most legislation requires 60 votes to advance past a filibuster and reach a final vote on the Senate floor. A party holding 53 or even 57 seats does not automatically have the votes to pass major legislation. The 60-vote threshold means that significant bills typically require at least some degree of bipartisan support, or the use of procedural mechanisms that bypass the filibuster entirely.

The primary such mechanism is budget reconciliation, a procedural process that allows certain fiscal legislation to pass with a simple majority of 51 votes rather than the 60 required to break a filibuster. Reconciliation has been used to pass major legislation across administrations of both parties, including the 2017 Republican tax overhaul and the 2022 Democratic climate and health care package known as the Inflation Reduction Act. Its use is governed by specific rules limiting the scope of what can be included, but it remains the primary vehicle for passing major fiscal legislation without bipartisan support.

The Senate also holds exclusive authority over the confirmation of federal judges, including Supreme Court justices, as well as cabinet officers and other senior executive branch officials. Since 2017, judicial confirmations require only a simple majority of 51 votes, meaning the party in the majority controls the pace and outcome of judicial appointments for the entirety of its majority.

The House, the Governors, and the Full Ballot

While the Senate map has drawn the most attention heading into 2026, the U.S. House presents its own set of consequential contests. All 435 seats are on the ballot. Republicans currently hold 218 seats to Democrats‘ 214, with several vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reach a majority. Republicans can afford to lose no more than two and retain control.

Nonpartisan election trackers have identified 42 competitive battleground districts heading into 2026 — 22 held by Democrats and 20 held by Republicans. An additional layer of uncertainty comes from redistricting: four states — California, Missouri, North Carolina, and Texas — will use newly redrawn congressional maps for the first time in 2026, following mid-decade redistricting efforts that altered district boundaries after the 2024 elections.

The 2026 ballot also includes 36 gubernatorial elections. Republicans currently hold 26 governorships to Democrats‘ 24. Of the 36 seats on the ballot, 15 are open because incumbents are constitutionally prohibited from seeking additional terms — producing a higher-than-average number of races without an incumbent on the ballot. The most competitive gubernatorial contests are concentrated in states that were closely contested in the 2024 presidential election: Georgia, where Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is term-limited; Michigan, where Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited; Arizona, where Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking reelection; and Wisconsin, where Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is seeking reelection.

Governors control state budgets and policy, and in many states hold direct authority over the administration of elections. They also play a significant role in the redistricting process that will follow the 2030 census, when congressional maps will be redrawn in every state. Which party controls governorships after 2026 will shape the congressional playing field for the decade that follows.

What Comes Next

The 2026 midterm elections will be decided on November 3. Before that day, voters in more than 40 states will participate in primary elections that determine the nominees each party sends into the general election. The first of those primaries — in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas — take place on March 3.

The structural facts are straightforward. The Senate majority is separated by four seats. The House majority is separated by three. Thirty-six governorships are in play. The historical record shows the president’s party losing ground in 18 of 20 midterm elections since World War II, with only two documented exceptions in eight decades.

What happens between March 3 and November 3 — who wins primaries, who raises money, who turns out voters across the 50 states — will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress and the governors of 36 states when they are sworn into office in January 2027.

Two critical U.S. Senate seats are up for grabs in 2026, with primaries in Texas and North Carolina drawing national attention. The Senate currently has a 53-47 Republican majority. These races could reshape the chamber’s balance.

In Texas, incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn faces primary challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. The Democratic primary features U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico. In North Carolina, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is running against former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis.

The Texas Tribune invited all candidates to complete detailed policy questionnaires. U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico responded. Sen. John Cornyn, Rep. Wesley Hunt, and Attorney General Ken Paxton did not respond; their positions are documented from voting records and public statements.

While many positions align with national party platforms, this guide documents the specific votes, bills, and statements from each candidate, allowing voters to see what their potential senators have actually said and done on these issues. This article focuses on four policy areas—immigration, taxes, healthcare, and social issues—where documented positions are available for all candidates.

Primary elections are March 3, 2026, with runoffs on May 26 if no candidate reaches 50 percent.

Immigration and Border Security

Immigration enforcement and pathways to citizenship have been central issues in both Senate races. In February 2026, the Republican-led House passed the SAVE America Act by a 218-213 vote, requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote.

Texas Republicans

Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued the Biden administration over 100 times on immigration matters and supports Texas SB 4, which allows state police to arrest undocumented immigrants. Paxton supported border wall construction and led 16 state attorneys general in opposing a Biden-backed Senate border bill. His campaign states he has been “standing up against open borders.”

Sen. John Cornyn, who chairs the Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration and Border Security, voted for the SAVE America Act in February 2026. He secured $12 billion in federal reimbursement for Texas border security and has introduced multiple bills on border enforcement, asylum processing, and E-Verify requirements.

Rep. Wesley Hunt voted for the SAVE America Act and introduced H.R. 1947 in 2023 to expedite deportations for those convicted of crimes. He supports ending catch-and-release policies and building a border wall.

Texas Democrats

Rep. Jasmine Crockett voted against the SAVE America Act, stating it would “disenfranchise eligible voters.” She co-sponsored H.R. 6, the American Dream and Promise Act of 2023, creating a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers. Crockett supports comprehensive immigration reform and opposes family separation policies.

State Rep. James Talarico voted for immigrant legal services funding in the 2023 Texas budget and supports pathways to citizenship. His Texas House record shows consistent support for immigrant rights measures.

North Carolina

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley supports border wall construction and increased Border Patrol staffing. As RNC Chairman, he advocated for passage of the SAVE America Act.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper vetoed 2019 legislation requiring sheriffs to comply with ICE detainers—a veto the Republican legislature overrode. Cooper opposed North Carolina‘s participation in federal immigration enforcement programs and issued executive orders protecting immigrant communities. He supports comprehensive immigration reform.

Key Positions:

• Paxton: Sued Biden 100+ times, supports state police arrest authority.

• Cornyn: Secured $12B for border operations, chairs immigration subcommittee.

• Hunt: Introduced deportation bill, supports border wall.

• Crockett: Opposes SAVE Act, supports Dreamer citizenship pathway.

• Talarico: Funded legal services, supports comprehensive reform.

• Whatley: Supports border wall, increased Border Patrol.

• Cooper: Vetoed ICE cooperation, issued protective orders.

Tax Policy and Economic Growth

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in December 2017 lowered the corporate tax rate from 35 to 21 percent. In 2025, Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, making Trump tax cuts permanent and eliminating renewable energy tax credits.

Texas Republicans

Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt have not released detailed tax policy positions. Paxton‘s campaign focuses on supporting the Trump agenda but has not addressed specific tax proposals.

Sen. John Cornyn voted for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017 and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025. As Senate Whip, he helped secure votes for the 2017 tax cuts. Cornyn supports eliminating taxes on tips and overtime income and has worked to expand Health Savings Accounts.

Texas Democrats

Rep. Jasmine Crockett voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, calling it the “Big, Ugly Bill.” She states “billionaires need to pay their fair share in taxes” and supports ending tariffs. Her position: “Make billionaires and the largest corporations pay their fair share.”

State Rep. James Talarico supports raising income and capital gains taxes on the wealthiest Americans to fund programs helping ordinary citizens. “These billionaires aren’t just buying yachts and jets. They are buying power,” he has said. Talarico also supports ending tariffs.

North Carolina

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is expected to support Trump tax policies. His campaign emphasizes “tax policies that are going to help our small businesses” and criticizes Cooper‘s “tax-and-spend” approach.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper opposed corporate tax cuts as governor, though his vetoes were overridden. His Senate campaign: “The biggest corporations and the richest Americans have grabbed unimaginable wealth at your expense. I’m running for Senate because it’s time for that to change.” Cooper raised $3.4 million in 24 hours campaigning on economic fairness.

Key Positions:

• Paxton: No detailed positions released.

• Cornyn: Voted for tax cuts, supports no tax on tips/overtime.

• Hunt: No detailed positions released.

• Crockett: Wants higher taxes on billionaires and corporations.

• Talarico: Supports raising taxes on wealthiest Americans.

• Whatley: Expected to support Trump tax policies.

• Cooper: Opposes corporate tax cuts, campaigns on fairness.

Health Care and Medicaid

The Affordable Care Act expanded health insurance through marketplace subsidies and allowed states to expand Medicaid. Texas has not expanded Medicaid, leaving approximately 5 million Texans uninsured. North Carolina expanded Medicaid in 2023, covering 600,000 residents.

Texas Republicans

Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued to overturn the ACA multiple times but has not released positions on Medicaid expansion or premium tax credits.

Sen. John Cornyn supports replacing the ACA and opposes ACA premium tax credit extensions without fraud reforms. In a December floor speech, Cornyn called a clean extension a “dirty bill” because “these subsidies are rife with fraud.” He prefers redirecting subsidies to Health Savings Accounts.

Rep. Wesley Hunt has not released specific healthcare positions.

Texas Democrats

Rep. Jasmine Crockett co-sponsors Medicare for All, supporting “a single-payer system that centers patients, not profits, and includes dental, vision, mental, and reproductive health coverage.” She co-sponsored legislation forcing Texas to accept Medicaid expansion and backed the Affordable Insulin Now Act capping insulin at $35 monthly. “Texas leads on uninsured in this country, with over 5 million uninsured,” she notes. Her principle: “Your health shouldn’t depend on your wallet.”

State Rep. James Talarico passed a $25 insulin co-pay cap in the Texas Legislature and legislation importing prescription drugs from Canada. He supports allowing every American to join Medicare, stating “universal coverage should be a nonnegotiable in the wealthiest country in human history.” Talarico, who has Type 1 diabetes, calls universal healthcare “a human right.”

North Carolina

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley has made limited healthcare policy statements and is expected to support Trump administration healthcare positions.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper secured Medicaid expansion in 2023, covering 600,000 residents—what he describes as having “won the battle over Medicaid expansion” despite a Republican legislature. He opposes Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act: “Republicans are going to have to explain whether they support slashing healthcare to fund more tax breaks for the wealthy.”

Key Positions:

• Paxton: Sued to overturn ACA, no expansion positions.

• Cornyn: Opposes ACA subsidies without fraud reforms.

• Hunt: No positions released.

• Crockett: Medicare for All co-sponsor, supports expansion.

• Talarico: Passed insulin cap, supports universal coverage.

• Whatley: Expected to align with Republican ACA positions.

• Cooper: Secured expansion covering 600,000 North Carolinians.

Social Policy: Abortion, Education, and LGBTQ Rights

The Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision returned abortion regulation to states. Texas enacted a near-total ban prohibiting abortion except in life-threatening emergencies. North Carolina passed a 12-week ban in 2023, though Gov. Cooper‘s veto prevented further restrictions.

Abortion and IVF

Texas Republicans: Attorney General Ken Paxton has defended Texas‘s near-total abortion ban, which defines life beginning at fertilization. Paxton has not addressed IVF despite questions about the law’s implications for procedures involving frozen embryo disposal.

Sen. John Cornyn co-sponsored legislation to protect IVF access by penalizing states that ban the procedure. The Texas Tribune could not find recent public comments from Cornyn on abortion policy.

Rep. Wesley Hunt supports expanding IVF access. “President Trump believes in families and supports Americans having access to AFFORDABLE IVF treatment,” he posted in February 2026.

Texas Democrats: Rep. Jasmine Crockett states “self-determination, personal choice, and privacy are foundational constitutional rights” and that “women will never have full personal and economic freedom until we restore the right to abortion access.” She introduced the Abortion Care Awareness Act in 2024 to combat anti-abortion misinformation.

State Rep. James Talarico frames his pro-choice position through Christian faith and has positioned himself as a “fierce queer ally” despite his religious background.

North Carolina: RNC Chairman Michael Whatley says he is “proud of anti-abortion activists for defending ‘the sanctity of life.’” He defended the 2024 Republican platform stating states are free to pass abortion laws while opposing late-term abortion. Democrats criticize his support of North Carolina‘s 12-week ban.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper vetoed SB 20 banning abortion after 12 weeks in 2023. Republicans overrode the veto, but Cooper‘s opposition prevented additional restrictions. Abortion remains more accessible in North Carolina than any other Southern state except Virginia. In 2019, Cooper vetoed legislation penalizing providers who don’t resuscitate newborns surviving abortion, calling it “unnecessary interference between doctors and their patients.”

LGBTQ Rights and Education

Texas Republicans: Attorney General Ken Paxton has filed lawsuits on transgender care restrictions. In January 2026, he issued a 74-page opinion attacking diversity initiatives.

Sen. John Cornyn historically opposed same-sex marriage. At Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson‘s 2022 hearings, he stated states should have power to ban same-sex marriage. Cornyn voted for a bipartisan gun safety bill in 2022, drawing criticism from his party’s base.

Rep. Wesley Hunt has not released positions on LGBTQ rights or education policy.

Texas Democrats: Rep. Jasmine Crockett supports LGBTQ rights and maintains a 100 percent pro-labor voting record.

State Rep. James Talarico went viral in 2023 for challenging a bill mandating Ten Commandments in classrooms. “Why is having a rainbow in a classroom indoctrination and not having the Ten Commandments in a classroom?” he asked. Talarico uses Biblical arguments for church-state separation and received endorsement from the Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus. He is a former public school teacher.

North Carolina: As NC GOP chair, Michael Whatley oversaw censuring Sen. Thom Tillis for supporting LGBTQ rights. In 2020, Whatley praised then-candidate Mark Robinson as “a man of tremendous faith and a very solid conservative.” Robinson, who embraced a total abortion ban, later lost the 2024 governor’s race by nearly 15 points.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper signed legislation repealing North Carolina‘s “bathroom bill” and allowed cities to extend antidiscrimination protections to LGBTQ people. Cooper vetoed bills restricting gender-affirming healthcare, transgender sports participation, and classroom instruction on gender identity. Republicans overrode these vetoes. During eight years as governor, Cooper vetoed over 100 bills—almost three times all other North Carolina governors combined since the veto was created in 1997—with Republicans overriding many on abortion, transgender care, and immigration.

Key Positions on Abortion:

• Paxton: Defended near-total ban.

• Cornyn: Co-sponsored IVF protection.

• Hunt: Supports IVF expansion.

• Crockett: Unrestricted rights, introduced awareness act.

• Talarico: Pro-choice through Christian lens.

• Whatley: Supported 12-week ban.

• Cooper: Vetoed restrictions, prevented further bans.

Key Positions on LGBTQ Rights:

• Paxton: Filed transgender care lawsuits.

• Cornyn: States should ban same-sex marriage (2022).

• Hunt: No positions released.

• Crockett: Strong ally, supports protections.

• Talarico: “Fierce ally,” viral classroom defense.

• Whatley: Censured Tillis for LGBTQ support.

• Cooper: Repealed bathroom bill, vetoed restrictions.

Conclusion

Texas and North Carolina voters will choose between these candidates in the March 3 primary, with runoffs on May 26 if no candidate reaches 50 percent. The general election is November 3, 2026.

For candidate information and voting locations, visit the Texas Secretary of State (sos.texas.gov) and North Carolina State Board of Elections (ncsbe.gov).

Research compiled from Texas Tribune candidate questionnaires, Congressional voting records, Texas Legislature records, North Carolina gubernatorial records, campaign statements, and public documents. Positions documented as of February 20, 2026.

The first votes of the 2026 midterm election cycle will be cast in 14 days on March 3, 2026, when Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas hold primary elections that will shape the battle for control of the United States Senate. President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday, February 16, that he has not yet decided whether to endorse a candidate in the Texas Republican Senate primary, saying the race has “a ways to go.” Early voting in Texas begins today, Tuesday, February 17, 2026, with polling showing competitive races in both the Republican and Democratic primaries.

Texas features competitive primaries in both parties for the seat currently held by Senator John Cornyn, who is seeking a fifth term. In the Republican primary, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Cornyn and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt in the most expensive GOP primary in the state’s history. In the Democratic primary, two conflicting polls show U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico in a competitive race following former Representative Colin Allred‘s withdrawal in December 2025.

North Carolina voters began casting early ballots on Thursday, February 12, 2026, for a Senate seat that could determine which party controls the chamber in 2027. Election officials in Wake County reported first-day turnout surpassing levels seen at the same point in the 2024 primary election. Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, a Republican, are expected to win their party primaries and face each other in a November toss-up race.

The Senate currently has a 53-47 Republican majority. Competitive races in Texas and North Carolina could affect control of the chamber. This article examines the latest polling data, campaign finance numbers, candidate strategies, and early voting developments in both states.

Texas Republican Primary: Paxton Leads Cornyn and Hunt

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has emerged as the frontrunner in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, leading Senator John Cornyn and Representative Wesley Hunt according to recent polling. The primary will determine which Republican advances to face the Democratic nominee in the November 3, 2026 general election.

A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll conducted from January 20 through January 31, 2026, showed Paxton with 38 percent support among likely Republican primary voters. Cornyn received 31 percent and Hunt received 17 percent. Fourteen percent of voters remained undecided. A separate Pulse Decision Science poll released in February 2026 confirmed Paxton‘s lead, showing him at 36 percent to Cornyn‘s 27 percent and Hunt‘s 15 percent, with 22 percent undecided. Both polls show Paxton with a clear lead heading into the final two weeks of the primary.

The University of Houston poll tested a hypothetical runoff scenario between Paxton and Cornyn. In that matchup, Paxton defeated Cornyn 51 percent to 40 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Texas requires a candidate to receive more than 50 percent of the vote to win a primary outright. If no candidate reaches that threshold on March 3, the top two finishers advance to a runoff election on May 26, 2026. Current polling suggests a runoff between Paxton and Cornyn is virtually certain.

Paxton has served as Texas attorney general since 2015. He survived an impeachment trial in the Texas Legislature in 2023 and has positioned himself as a vocal supporter of President Trump‘s policies. Paxton has filed numerous lawsuits challenging federal policies on immigration, elections, and other issues during his tenure as attorney general.

Cornyn was first elected to the Senate in 2002 after serving as Texas attorney general and as a justice on the Texas Supreme Court. He has held leadership positions in the Senate Republican caucus and currently serves as a senior member of the Judiciary Committee. Cornyn voted in favor of the SAVE America Act, which passed the House 218-213 on February 11, 2026, and includes provisions for voter identification and proof of citizenship requirements for federal elections.

Hunt was elected to the U.S. House in 2022 and represents Texas‘s 38th congressional district. Hunt, a U.S. Army veteran, has positioned himself as a younger alternative who can appeal to both establishment Republicans and Trump supporters. The University of Houston poll found that 55 percent of Texas Republican primary voters said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by President Trump, underscoring how critical his eventual endorsement may be to the outcome of either the primary or the May 26, 2026 runoff.

Campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission through January 31, 2026, show Cornyn has raised $35 million and reported $18 million in cash on hand. Paxton has raised $10 million and reported $4.2 million in cash on hand. Hunt has raised $8 million and reported $3.1 million in cash on hand. Cornyn has received approximately 65 percent of his contributions from individual donors and 35 percent from political action committees. He has been endorsed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and numerous Senate Republicans. Paxton has received approximately 80 percent of his contributions from individual donors and 20 percent from PACs. Hunt has received approximately 70 percent from individuals and 30 percent from PACs.

President Trump has not endorsed any candidate in the race despite public requests from all three campaigns. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Monday, February 16, Trump said: “I just haven’t made a decision on that race yet. It’s got a ways to go, and I haven’t. I like all three of them, actually. Those are the toughest races. They’ve all supported me. They’re all good. You’re supposed to pick one, so we’ll see what happens. But I support all three.” A Trump endorsement is considered critical to the outcome of either the primary or a potential runoff, given that 55 percent of Texas Republican primary voters said they would be more likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate.

The candidates have pursued different campaign strategies in the final weeks before the primary. Paxton has emphasized his record of challenging federal policies and his loyalty to Trump‘s agenda, positioning himself as a fighter against federal overreach. Cornyn has highlighted his seniority in the Senate, his committee assignments, and his ability to deliver results for Texas through legislative experience. Hunt has focused on generational change and his military service record while attempting to bridge the divide between establishment Republicans and the party’s populist wing.

Early voting in Texas began Tuesday, February 17, 2026, and runs through Friday, February 28, 2026. Election Day is Tuesday, March 3, 2026. Texas requires voters to present photo identification at polling places. Acceptable forms of identification include a Texas driver’s license, Texas Election Identification Certificate (free), U.S. passport, U.S. military ID, or other government-issued photo ID.

Texas Democratic Primary: Crockett and Talarico in Contested Race

U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico are competing in a contested Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, with two recent polls showing conflicting results. The race took shape after former Representative Colin Allred dropped out on the final day to file for candidacy.

Allred represented Texas‘s 32nd congressional district from 2019 to 2025. He challenged Senator Ted Cruz in the November 2024 general election and lost 53 percent to 45 percent. On July 1, 2025, Allred announced he would run for Senate in 2026, targeting Cornyn‘s seat. On December 8, 2025, the final day to file candidacy papers for the March 3 primary, Allred withdrew from the race, citing fundraising challenges and the difficulty of mounting a second statewide campaign within two years. Allred subsequently endorsed Crockett for the Democratic nomination following a controversy in which Talarico was accused of calling Allred a “mediocre Black man” in a private conversation. Talarico disputed the characterization as a misrepresentation of his words.

Crockett entered the race the same day Allred withdrew. Crockett represents Texas‘s 30th congressional district, which includes parts of Dallas. She was elected to Congress in 2022 and is serving her second term. Crockett has gained national attention as a frequent critic of the Trump administration and appears regularly on cable news programs.

Talarico represents a Texas House district in the Round Rock area north of Austin. He was elected to the Texas House in 2018 and worked as a middle school teacher before entering politics.

Two polls released in recent weeks show conflicting results in the Texas Democratic primary. A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll conducted from January 20 through January 31 showed Crockett with 47 percent support compared to Talarico‘s 39 percent and 2 percent for Ahmad Hassan, with 12 percent undecided.

However, an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released on January 15, 2026, showed Talarico leading Crockett 47 percent to 38 percent, with 15 percent undecided. Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball noted that Talarico had built support among Hispanic voters (59 percent) and white voters (57 percent), while 80 percent of Black Democratic primary voters supported Crockett. Men supported Talarico 52 percent to 30 percent, while women were roughly evenly split at 44 percent for Talarico and 43 percent for Crockett.

The conflicting polls reflect a genuinely competitive race. The University of Houston poll, the more recent of the two surveys, shows Crockett with a lead outside the margin of error of plus or minus 4.18 percentage points. The Emerson poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. Voters and analysts should treat both sets of numbers with caution until additional polling is released.

Campaign finance reports show Crockett has raised $8.2 million through January 31, 2026, despite entering the race on December 8, 2025. Talarico has raised $4.1 million. Crockett‘s fundraising advantage reflects her national profile and donor network built during her time in Congress.

Crockett has 92 percent name recognition among Democratic primary voters according to the University of Houston poll. Talarico has 68 percent name recognition. This gap in voter familiarity represents a significant advantage for Crockett in the race.

The two candidates debated on January 24, 2026, at the Texas AFL-CIO COPE Convention in Georgetown, Texas. Both emphasized economic issues including wages, labor rights, and corporate accountability. Crockett highlighted her experience in Congress and her work on national issues. Talarico focused on Texas-specific concerns including education funding and his record in the state legislature.

The Democratic primary winner faces long odds in the general election. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Republicans are favored to win the Senate seat regardless of which Democrat wins the primary. However, polling conducted in early February 2026 showed closer-than-expected general election matchups. A hypothetical race between Paxton and Crockett showed a 46 percent to 46 percent tie. A race between Cornyn and Crockett showed Cornyn leading by 2 percentage points.

Republican strategists have indicated they prefer to face Crockett in the general election, believing her progressive voting record and national profile as a Trump critic make her easier to defeat in Texas than a more moderate Democrat. Democrats are divided on whether Crockett‘s ability to energize the party base outweighs concerns about her electability in a statewide race.

Early voting in Texas began Tuesday, February 17, 2026, and runs through Friday, February 28, 2026. Election Day is Tuesday, March 3, 2026.

North Carolina: Early Voting Underway in Preview of November Toss-Up

North Carolina began early voting on Thursday, February 12, 2026, for primary elections that will determine which candidates face each other in a Senate race that could decide control of the chamber. 319 early voting sites opened statewide, a 6 percent increase from the 301 sites available during the May 2022 primary. The increase also represents a jump from 45,512 hours to 48,048 hours of early voting availability compared to the 2022 primary.

Election officials in Wake County, home to the state capital Raleigh, reported that first-day turnout surpassed levels seen at the same point in the 2024 primary election. Wake County Board of Elections Director Olivia McCall said: “We already are surpassing the same number that we had from the 2024 primary election. If that trends, we’re going to see record-breaking turnout.” In the 2022 primary, 59 percent of voters cast ballots on Election Day, 39 percent during early voting, and 2 percent by mail.

Former Governor Roy Cooper cast his ballot at the Wake County Board of Elections office in Raleigh on the first day of early voting. Cooper is the clear frontrunner in the Democratic primary and faces no significant opposition. Cooper served two terms as governor from 2017 to 2025 and won six statewide elections during his political career, including races for attorney general and governor. He has raised $14.2 million since entering the race in July 2025 and reported $9.1 million in cash on hand through January 31, 2026.

Former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley also voted on the first day of early voting. Whatley is leading the Republican primary field with 36 percent support according to recent polling, with Don Brown at 6 percent and Michele Morrow at 4 percent. Fifty percent of Republican primary voters remain undecided despite Whatley receiving President Trump‘s endorsement. Whatley faces a significant name recognition challenge, with 36 percent of North Carolina Republican primary voters reporting they are not familiar with him.

The Senate seat is open after Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced on June 29, 2025, that he would not seek re-election to a third term. Tillis retired after President Trump threatened to support a primary opponent when Tillis voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included Medicaid cuts that Tillis said would harm North Carolina hospitals.

Both Cooper and Whatley are expected to win their party primaries on March 3, 2026. The general election matchup between the two is rated as a toss-up by nonpartisan election forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Recent polling shows Cooper leading Whatley in hypothetical general election matchups. A Carolina Journal poll conducted in November 2025 showed Cooper with 47 percent and Whatley with 39 percent. A Tipp Insights poll conducted in February 2026 showed Cooper with 48 percent and Whatley with 24 percent. The RealClearPolling average of multiple polls shows Cooper leading by 3.4 percentage points.

Whatley has raised $11.4 million through January 31, 2026, and reported $5.8 million in cash on hand. Outside groups including Super PACs have already committed more than $10 million in additional spending on the race. The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican Super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership, has reserved advertising time in North Carolina for the general election. The Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic group, has done the same.

Cooper has focused his campaign on health care access, including defense of Medicaid expansion, and has positioned himself as a moderate Democrat who can work across party lines. He has emphasized his record as governor and his experience winning statewide elections in a competitive state. Whatley has emphasized his loyalty to President Trump‘s agenda and has focused on economic growth, law enforcement, and border security.

The race carries significant implications for Senate control. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. If Democrats flip the North Carolina seat while holding their other seats, Republicans’ majority would narrow to 52-48. Combined with potential Democratic victories in other competitive races, the North Carolina outcome could determine which party controls the Senate in 2027.

North Carolina requires voters to present photo identification at polling places. Acceptable forms include a North Carolina driver’s license, North Carolina state ID, North Carolina voter photo ID (free), U.S. passport, U.S. military ID, or tribal enrollment card from a North Carolina-recognized tribe. Early voting runs through Saturday, February 28, 2026. Voters can verify registration and find polling locations at NCSBE.gov.

Campaign Spending and Advertising

The Texas and North Carolina Senate races have attracted record campaign spending in the primary phase of the election cycle. Combined spending across both states exceeds $90 million through January 31, 2026, with additional millions committed for the final two weeks before the March 3 primary.

In Texas, Republican primary candidates have spent more than $53 million combined. Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt have invested heavily in television advertising in major media markets including Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and San Antonio. Paxton has committed $4 million to television advertising in the final two weeks before the primary. Cornyn has committed $6 million to television advertising in the same period. Hunt is spending less on television but has invested in targeted digital advertising aimed at younger voters and veterans.

Democratic primary candidates in Texas have spent more than $12 million combined. Crockett has committed $2 million to television advertising in the final two weeks. Talarico is spending less on paid media and is relying more heavily on grassroots organizing and earned media coverage.

In North Carolina, Cooper has reserved $1.5 million in television time for the final two weeks of the primary but may not spend all of it given his lack of serious primary opposition. Whatley is spending moderately on paid advertising to increase his name recognition before the primary. Outside groups have already committed more than $10 million in additional advertising spending on the general election race.

The next Federal Election Commission reporting deadline is April 15, 2026, covering campaign activity from January 1 through March 31, 2026. Those reports will provide a complete picture of spending during the primary election period.

What to Watch on Election Night

March 3, 2026, will provide the first results of the 2026 midterm election cycle. Several key questions will be answered in Texas and North Carolina.

In the Texas Republican primary, the central question is whether any candidate can avoid a runoff by receiving more than 50 percent of the vote. Current polling suggests a runoff between Paxton and Cornyn is virtually certain. The margin between the two candidates will indicate momentum heading into the May 26 runoff. The performance of Hunt, polling at approximately 15-17 percent, matters because his supporters will become decisive voters in a Paxton-Cornyn runoff. President Trump‘s endorsement, if he makes one before March 3, could significantly alter the outcome. If Trump has not endorsed by Election Day, the timing of his eventual endorsement becomes even more critical for the May 26 runoff.

In the Texas Democratic primary, the conflicting polls make the result difficult to predict. The University of Houston survey shows Crockett ahead by 8 points, while the Emerson poll shows Talarico ahead by 9 points. The margin of victory for either candidate will indicate Democratic enthusiasm and unity heading into the general election. Turnout in Dallas (where Crockett has her base) versus Austin and Round Rock (where Talarico has his base) will be an early indicator of which candidate’s organization performed better.

In North Carolina, both Cooper and Whatley are expected to win their primaries. The margins matter as indicators of strength heading into the general election. Cooper‘s margin will signal Democratic enthusiasm for the fall race. Whatley‘s margin, despite his name recognition challenges, will indicate how effectively he has consolidated Republican support behind Trump‘s endorsed candidate.

Early voting turnout in North Carolina, already tracking above 2024 levels in Wake County, will provide additional data points on voter enthusiasm in the 2026 cycle. North Carolina releases daily early voting statistics broken down by party registration, providing ongoing signals about which party has stronger turnout operations and enthusiasm heading toward March 3.

Conclusion

Fourteen days remain until the first votes of the 2026 midterm election cycle are cast. Early voting is already underway in North Carolina and begins today in Texas and Arkansas. The Texas Senate primaries feature competitive races in both parties, with Ken Paxton leading the Republican field according to two recent polls and a contested Democratic race between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico that two conflicting surveys have been unable to definitively call.

Texas Republicans face a likely runoff between Paxton and John Cornyn on May 26, 2026, unless one candidate receives more than 50 percent on March 3. The race has drawn more than $53 million in campaign spending and has become the most expensive Republican Senate primary in Texas history. Texas Democrats will choose between Crockett and Talarico, with the winner facing long odds in the general election in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.

North Carolina voters have been casting early ballots since February 12, 2026, with Wake County reporting first-day turnout surpassing 2024 primary levels. Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley are expected to win their primaries on March 3 and face each other in a general election race rated as a toss-up that could determine which party controls the Senate in 2027.

Voters can verify their registration status, review identification requirements, find polling locations, and check early voting schedules at their state election websites. Early voting in North Carolina runs through Saturday, February 28, 2026. Early voting in Texas and Arkansas runs through Friday, February 28, 2026.

Election Day in all three states is Tuesday, March 3, 2026.

The United States House of Representatives passed the SAVE America Act by a vote of 218-213 on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, imposing new federal voter identification requirements for all federal elections. The legislation requires voters to present government-issued photo identification to cast ballots and mandates proof of citizenship documentation to register to vote. The bill also bans mail-in-only voter registration processes.

President Donald Trump and entrepreneur Elon Musk are both pressuring Senate Republicans to pass the legislation. Trump posted on Truth Social on February 5 and February 9 that “America’s Elections are Rigged, Stolen, and a Laughingstock all over the World. We are either going to fix them, or we won’t have a Country any longer.” Musk posted on X that the SAVE America Act “must be done or democracy is dead” and called it the “only way to save America.”

The bill faces certain defeat in the Senate despite passing the House. Senate passage requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, but Republicans hold only a 53-47 majority. The bill lost its first Republican supporter when Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska announced her opposition on Tuesday, February 10, stating that imposing new federal requirements this close to the midterm elections would “negatively impact election integrity” by forcing election officials to “scramble” without necessary resources. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called the legislation “dead on arrival” and said Democrats will “never in a million years” consider it.

The federal debate unfolds as voters in four of the five states holding March 2026 primaries already face strict photo identification requirements. Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas, and Mississippi require photo ID at the polls. Illinois does not require identification. The first primaries of the 2026 midterm election cycle will be held in 18 days on March 3, 2026.

This article examines the history of voter ID laws in the United States, compares American requirements to international practices, details specific requirements for March 2026 primary voters in each state, explains how to obtain free voter identification, and reports on the current federal legislative debate.

History of Voter ID in the United States

South Carolina became the first state to request voter identification in 1950, accepting non-photo identification as proof of identity. Hawaii followed in 1970, Texas in 1971, Florida in 1977, and Alaska in 1980, all with non-photo ID requests. No state required photo ID until 2006.

The modern era of voter ID laws began when Indiana enacted the first strict photo ID law in 2005. The law required voters to present government-issued photo identification or cast a provisional ballot and take additional steps after Election Day to have their vote counted.

The Supreme Court addressed voter ID requirements in Crawford v. Marion County Election Board in 2008, upholding Indiana‘s law by a 6-3 vote. The decision established that states can require photo ID if they provide free alternatives to voters who lack identification. The ruling opened the door for other states to adopt similar requirements.

As of January 2026, 36 states require some form of ID to vote. 21 states require photo ID, 12 states accept non-photo ID, and 14 states plus Washington, D.C., do not require ID.

Voter ID requirements fall into four categories. Strict photo ID states require voters to show photo ID or cast provisional ballots and take additional steps after Election Day. Nine states enforce strict photo ID requirements: Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and Wisconsin.

Non-strict photo ID states request photo ID but provide alternatives without requiring additional steps. Twelve states use non-strict photo ID policies, including Texas, Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, and others.

Strict non-photo ID states require non-photo ID with a provisional ballot process if voters lack identification. Three states enforce this requirement: Arizona, North Dakota, and Wyoming.

Non-strict non-photo ID states request non-photo ID but do not strictly require it. Nine states use this approach, including Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, and others.

Of the 21 states requiring photo ID, 9 enforce strict requirements that mandate provisional ballots with additional steps, and 12 use non-strict policies that allow alternatives without additional burden.

Voter ID in Other Democracies

Most major democracies require voter identification. Canada, France, Germany, India, Mexico, and the United Kingdom require voters to present identification at polling places. Many of these countries provide free national identification cards to all citizens automatically. The United States does not have a national ID system and relies on state-issued documents such as driver’s licenses, state ID cards, passports, and military identification. This creates variation in identification requirements across states and means that obtaining voter ID may require multiple steps and supporting documents.

The debate over voter ID requirements intensified in February 2026 when the House of Representatives passed federal legislation. The following sections detail how photo ID requirements currently work in the five states holding March 2026 primaries.

March 2026 Primary State Requirements

Arkansas (March 3, 2026)

Requirement: Strict photo ID

Acceptable IDs: Arkansas driver’s license (expired acceptable if issued within 4 years), Arkansas state ID card, U.S. passport, U.S. military ID, Arkansas public college or university student ID, Arkansas concealed carry permit, U.S. naturalization document with photo.

Without ID: Voters cast provisional ballot, sign sworn statement, and must return with acceptable ID or have identity verified by county board within 7 days for vote to count.

Free ID available: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration offices issue free voter ID cards (details in following section).

Early voting: February 17 through March 1, 2026 (photo ID required).

Absentee voting: Must include copy of photo ID with ballot.

North Carolina (March 3, 2026)

Requirement: Strict photo ID

Acceptable IDs: North Carolina driver’s license (expired acceptable if expired within 5 years), North Carolina state ID, U.S. passport, U.S. military ID, North Carolina voter photo ID (free), tribal enrollment card from North Carolina-recognized tribe, student ID from North Carolina college or university with specific security features.

Without ID: Voters cast provisional ballot, sign reasonable impediment declaration explaining why they lack ID, provide last 4 digits of Social Security number. Election officials investigate eligibility.

Free ID available: NC Division of Motor Vehicles and county boards of elections issue free North Carolina Voter Photo ID cards (details in following section).

Early voting: February 12 through February 28, 2026 (photo ID required).

Absentee voting: Must include copy of photo ID with returned ballot.

Texas (March 3, 2026)

Requirement: Non-strict photo ID (alternatives available)

Acceptable IDs: Texas driver’s license (expired acceptable if within 4 years for voters 70+, within 5 years for ages 18-69), Texas Election Identification Certificate (free), Texas personal ID card, U.S. military ID with photo, U.S. citizenship certificate with photo, U.S. passport, license to carry handgun.

Without ID: Voters sign Reasonable Impediment Declaration, show supporting document (utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, birth certificate), and vote regular ballot (not provisional).

Free ID available: Texas Department of Public Safety offices issue free Election Identification Certificates (details in following section).

Early voting: February 17 through February 27, 2026 (photo ID or reasonable impediment declaration).

Absentee voting: ID number or copy of photo ID required with application.

Mississippi (March 10, 2026)

Requirement: Strict photo ID

Acceptable IDs: Mississippi driver’s license, Mississippi state ID, U.S. passport, U.S. military ID, Mississippi voter ID card (free), license to carry pistol or revolver, employee photo ID from Mississippi governmental entity, student photo ID from Mississippi college or university.

Without ID: Voters cast provisional ballot, sign affidavit, and must provide photo ID to circuit clerk’s office within 5 business days for vote to count.

Free ID available: Circuit clerk offices in all 82 Mississippi counties issue free Mississippi Voter Identification Cards (details in following section).

Early voting: Mississippi does not offer in-person early voting.

Absentee voting: Must be notarized or have two witnesses; specific ID requirements vary by reason for absentee ballot.

Illinois (March 17, 2026)

Requirement: No photo ID required

What voters need: Voters must state their name and address as it appears on voter registration and sign the poll book. No identification document is required except for first-time voters who registered by mail and did not provide an ID number with their registration.

First-time mail registrants without ID number must show: Current valid photo ID OR current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document showing name and address.

Without ID: Registered voters who appear on poll books vote without showing identification.

Early voting: Began February 5, 2026 in most counties; specific dates vary by jurisdiction.

Absentee voting: No ID required for registered voters.

How to Get Free Voter ID in March Primary States

Arkansas - Free Voter ID Card

Where: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration (DFA) offices statewide

Required documents:

• Proof of identity: birth certificate, passport, or previous driver’s license

• Social Security card or document showing Social Security number

• Two proofs of Arkansas residency: utility bill, bank statement, lease, or mail from government agency dated within last 90 days

Processing time: Same-day issuance at most DFA offices

Cost: Free for voting purposes

Underlying document fees: Arkansas birth certificate costs $12 from Arkansas Department of Health; fee waiver available for voting purposes by submitting Voter ID Declaration form

Contact: Arkansas.gov/dfa or (501) 682-2000

North Carolina - Free Voter Photo ID

Where:

• NC Division of Motor Vehicles (DMV) offices statewide

• County boards of elections (all 100 counties)

Required documents:

• Proof of age and identity: birth certificate, passport, or immigration document

• Proof of residency: utility bill, bank statement, paycheck, or property tax document

• Social Security number

Processing time:

• DMV offices: Often same-day issuance

• County boards of elections: May take up to 10 business days by mail

Cost: Free

Underlying document fees: North Carolina birth certificate costs $24; fee can be waived for voting ID purposes through DMV

Special assistance: Mobile DMV units available for elderly, disabled, or voters without transportation; call (919) 715-7000 to schedule

Contact: NCDMV.gov or (919) 715-7000; find county board at NCSBE.gov

Texas - Free Election Identification Certificate (EIC)

Where: Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) driver license offices statewide (over 200 locations)

Required documents:

• Proof of U.S. citizenship: birth certificate, passport, or naturalization papers

• Proof of identity: supporting identity documents if no primary ID available

• Proof of Social Security number: Social Security card or W-2 form

• Two proofs of Texas residency: utility bill, bank statement, current Texas vehicle registration, or insurance document

Processing time:

• Typically same-day issuance if all documents accepted

• If supporting documents needed for identity verification, may require additional processing time or second visit

Cost: Free Election Identification Certificate for registered voters

Underlying document fees: Texas birth certificate costs $22; can be waived for EIC purposes by submitting Request for Free Birth Certificate form to Texas Department of State Health Services

Special assistance: DPS offices provide accommodations for voters with disabilities; interpreters available at some locations

Contact: Texas.gov/EIC or (512) 424-2600

Mississippi - Free Voter Identification Card

Where: Circuit clerk’s office in any of Mississippi‘s 82 counties

Required documents:

• Proof of identity: birth certificate, previous photo ID, or official document with name and photo

• Proof of Mississippi residency: utility bill, bank statement, or lease agreement

Processing time: Usually same-day at circuit clerk’s office during regular business hours

Cost: Free

Underlying document fees: Mississippi birth certificate costs $15 from Mississippi State Department of Health; fee may be waived for voting ID purposes by contacting vital records office

Contact: Find your county circuit clerk at MSSecretaryOfState.com or call Mississippi Secretary of State at (601) 576-2550

General Tips for All States

Start early: Apply for voter ID at least 2-3 weeks before primary date; do not wait until final week.

Call ahead: Confirm office hours, required documents, and whether appointment needed.

Bring original documents: Photocopies often not accepted; bring originals or certified copies.

Ask about fee waivers: States provide waivers for underlying documents (birth certificates) when obtained for voting purposes.

Assistance available: Mobile units, mail-in processes, and special accommodations exist for elderly, disabled, or rural voters without transportation.

The Federal Debate

The SAVE America Act passed the House of Representatives 218-213 on Wednesday, February 11, 2026. The legislation would impose new federal requirements for all federal elections, including presidential, Senate, and House races.

The bill requires voters to present government-issued photo identification at polling places to cast ballots. Acceptable forms of identification would include passports, military IDs, and state-issued driver’s licenses or ID cards. The bill requires proof of citizenship documentation to register to vote, including birth certificates, passports, or naturalization documents. The legislation also bans mail-in-only voter registration processes but does not ban mail-in voting itself.

Only one Democrat voted in favor of the legislation: Representative Henry Cuellar of Texas. All other Democrats voted against the bill. The vote broke largely along party lines.

Republican supporters argue the legislation prevents voter fraud and illegal voting in federal elections. Proponents contend that photo ID requirements increase public confidence in election integrity and represent a common-sense safeguard used in most democratic countries. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said the bill ensures “only American citizens vote in American elections.” Republicans note that states requiring photo ID provide free identification cards to registered voters who lack other acceptable documents.

Democratic opponents argue the legislation creates barriers for legitimate voters who lack required documentation. According to the Brennan Center for Justice, approximately 21 million Americans lack ready access to citizenship documents such as birth certificates or passports. The Center for American Progress estimates that up to 100 million Americans could face new hurdles under the proposed requirements. Democrats argue the law would disproportionately affect women who changed their names after marriage, LGBTQ+ individuals who changed their names, elderly voters, and low-income voters who may not possess required documents or have difficulty obtaining them. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called the legislation “Jim Crow 2.0” and declared it “dead on arrival” in the Senate.

The bill faces near-certain defeat in the Senate. Senate passage requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster under current rules. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning at least 8 Democrats would need to vote in favor of the legislation for it to pass. No Democrats have indicated support for the bill.

The legislation lost its first Republican supporter when Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska announced her opposition on Tuesday, February 10, 2026. Murkowski stated that imposing new federal voter identification requirements this close to the November 2026 midterm elections would “negatively impact election integrity” by forcing state and local election officials to “scramble” to implement new systems without adequate time or resources. Her opposition means Republicans would need at least 9 Democrats to reach the 60-vote threshold.

Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina told reporters on Tuesday that the “pro-nuke crowd didn’t have the votes” to eliminate the filibuster through the so-called nuclear option. Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed the chamber is “not even close” to having the votes needed to change Senate rules. Senator Chuck Schumer vowed that Democrats will “never in a million years” consider the legislation.

President Trump has continued to pressure Senate Republicans to pass the bill. At a White House press conference on Tuesday, Trump repeated claims that American elections are “rigged” and “stolen.” Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday, Trump stated that the 2020 presidential election was “stolen” from him. Trump told reporters that states are “agents of the federal government” and that if states cannot properly run elections, Congress should “do something about it.”

Entrepreneur Elon Musk has also publicly supported the SAVE America Act. Musk continues to post on X (formerly Twitter), calling the legislation “essential to stop widespread fraud” in American elections. Musk is also supporting a California Voter ID Initiative that would require photo identification for all elections in California. The initiative topped 1 million signatures as of January 7, 2026, and organizers are working to qualify the measure for the November 2026 ballot. Musk reposted House Majority Leader Steve Scalise‘s statement about the bill with the comment “[t]his is great.”

Conclusion

Voter identification requirements vary significantly across the United States. Four of the five states holding March 2026 primaries—Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas, and Mississippi—require voters to present photo identification at the polls. Illinois does not require identification.

The federal debate over nationwide voter ID requirements continues as the SAVE America Act faces likely defeat in the Senate despite passing the House 218-213 on February 11, 2026. The issue remains politically divisive, with supporters citing fraud prevention and election integrity and opponents citing access barriers for legitimate voters without required documentation.

Each state that currently requires photo ID provides free identification cards for registered voters. Voters should obtain required identification well before primary election dates to avoid issues at the polls. Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas hold primaries on March 3, 2026. Mississippi votes on March 10, 2026. Illinois votes on March 17, 2026.

Voters without required identification may cast provisional ballots in states with strict ID laws, though additional steps are required after Election Day for those votes to count. Early voting and absentee voting have specific ID requirements that vary by state.

Current requirements and procedures can be verified through state election websites or by contacting local election officials. The federal voter ID debate is ongoing and developing. I will continue to cover voter ID developments as the March primaries approach and the federal legislative debate continues.

The first votes of the 2026 midterm election cycle will be cast across five states in March 2026, setting in motion a national political contest that will determine control of the United States Senate and shape policy on federal spending, immigration enforcement, and economic priorities.

Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas will hold primary elections on March 3, 2026. Mississippi follows on March 10, 2026. Illinois closes the month on March 17, 2026. These five states will allocate the first delegates to the national party conventions and serve as the initial test of candidate strength before the November 3, 2026 general election.

The outcomes will influence fundraising, media coverage, and campaign strategy for the rest of the cycle. In North Carolina and Texas, Senate races have drawn the largest and most expensive primary fields in both states' recent history. North Carolina has an open seat after Senator Thom Tillis retired, while Texas features an expensive Republican primary as incumbent John Cornyn faces challengers. Both races are considered toss-ups in the general election and could determine which party controls the Senate in 2027.

This article explains what primary elections decide, how delegates are awarded, and provides details on the key dates, rules, and candidates in each March state.

Primaries vs. the General Election

A primary election is an intraparty contest in which registered voters select a candidate to represent their political party in the general election. Primary winners do not win office directly. Instead, they advance to the general election ballot on November 3, 2026, where voters choose the final officeholder.

States operate three types of primaries. In open primaries, any registered voter may participate regardless of party affiliation. In closed primaries, only voters registered with a specific party may vote in that party’s primary. Semi-closed primaries allow party members and unaffiliated voters to participate, but exclude voters registered with opposing parties.

The primary system allows political parties to vet multiple candidates before consolidating behind a single nominee. The general election determines the actual winner of the office.

What a Primary Actually Decides

Primary elections determine which candidate will represent each party in the November general election. They also allocate delegates to the national party conventions, where presidential nominees are formally selected in presidential election years.

Delegates are party members who attend the national convention and cast votes for candidates based on primary or caucus results. In congressional and statewide races, delegates serve a symbolic role, as the primary winner becomes the party’s nominee directly. However, the delegate allocation process still matters because it reflects the formal mechanics of party nomination procedures.

Delegates fall into two categories. Pledged delegates are bound to support the candidate who won their state or district. Unpledged delegates, sometimes called superdelegates in Democratic contests, can support any candidate regardless of primary results. Superdelegates are typically party officials and elected leaders.

Primary delegates are awarded through two main methods. Proportional allocation divides delegates among candidates based on their share of the vote. For Democrats, candidates must receive at least 15 percent of the vote statewide or in a congressional district to qualify for any delegates. This threshold ensures that only viable candidates receive representation at the convention.

Winner-take-all allocation awards all delegates to the candidate who receives the most votes. Some states use hybrid systems that combine both methods. For example, a state might allocate statewide delegates proportionally but award congressional district delegates on a winner-take-all basis.

The number of delegates each state sends to the national convention varies based on population and past support for the party. Texas sends significantly more delegates than Mississippi because of its larger population and number of congressional districts.

Early primary wins create momentum for candidates. Strong performance in March can attract additional donors, secure endorsements from party leaders, and generate favorable media coverage. This momentum can be decisive in later contests, particularly if a candidate establishes a delegate lead that becomes difficult to overcome.

March 3, 2026 – Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas

Arkansas

Primary Date: March 3, 2026
Primary Type: Open primary
Runoff: March 31, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority
Voter ID: Arkansas requires photo identification to vote
Early Voting: February 17 through March 1, 2026
Absentee Voting: Applications must be submitted by February 24, 2026

Arkansas will elect a governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, and four U.S. House representatives in November 2026. The March 3 primary determines which candidates advance to the general election.

Governor: Republican incumbent Sarah Huckabee Sanders is seeking a second term. Sanders, who served as White House press secretary during President Donald Trump’s first term, won her first election in 2022 with 62.96 percent of the vote. She faces no opposition in the Republican primary. Two Democratic candidates, whose names were not widely reported as of early February 2026, have declared candidacy.

Sanders has campaigned on tax cuts and economic development. Her administration has focused on workforce training and education reform. On immigration, Sanders has supported state cooperation with federal enforcement agencies. She has called for reduced federal spending and criticized what she describes as excessive federal regulatory authority.

U.S. Senate: Republican Tom Cotton is running for re-election. Cotton was first elected to the Senate in 2014 and faces no significant primary opposition. Cotton has positioned himself as a national security conservative and has been an outspoken critic of federal spending increases. He supports stricter immigration enforcement and has called for reducing the federal deficit through spending cuts to domestic programs while maintaining defense funding.

North Carolina

Primary Date: March 3, 2026
Primary Type: Semi-closed primary
Runoff: May 12, 2026 if no candidate receives 30 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher requests a runoff
Voter ID: North Carolina requires photo identification to vote
Early Voting: February 12 through February 28, 2026
Absentee Voting: Request deadline is February 17, 2026

North Carolina will elect a U.S. senator and all 14 U.S. House representatives in November 2026. The Senate race is considered one of the most competitive contests in the country and could determine which party controls the Senate.

U.S. Senate: The seat is open after Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced on June 29, 2025 that he would not seek re-election to a third term. Tillis retired after President Trump threatened to back a primary opponent when Tillis voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included Medicaid cuts that Tillis said would harm North Carolina hospitals.

Democratic Primary: Former Governor Roy Cooper is the frontrunner. Cooper served two terms as governor from 2017 to 2025 and won six statewide elections as governor and attorney general. He has raised more than $14 million since entering the race in July 2025. Cooper has focused his campaign on protecting health care access and opposing cuts to Medicaid expansion. On the economy, Cooper has called for middle-class tax relief and wage growth. On immigration, Cooper supports enhanced border security but has criticized what he describes as aggressive enforcement tactics that he believes require federal reform. On federal spending, Cooper has opposed cuts to health care and education while calling for targeted reductions in other areas.

Five other Democrats are running: High Point pastor Orrick Quick, Wilmington lawyer Marcus Williams, progressive activist Justin Dues of Concord, Daryl Farrow of Jacksonville, and Robert Colon of Rocky Point.

Republican Primary: Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley has received President Trump’s endorsement. Whatley led the North Carolina Republican Party for five years before serving as RNC chairman in 2024 and 2025. Whatley has raised more than $11 million since announcing his campaign on July 31, 2025. He has focused his campaign on economic relief through job creation and wage increases. On immigration, Whatley supports strict federal enforcement and has praised Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations in North Carolina. On federal spending, Whatley has called for reducing what he describes as wasteful federal programs while increasing border security and defense funding.

Six other Republicans are running: educator Elizabeth Temple of Smithfield, business consultant Thomas Johnson of Garner, Margot Dupre of Charlotte, Richard Dansie of Durham, Don Brown of Waxhaw, and Michele Morrow of Cary.

Cooper leads Whatley by approximately six points in polling averages as of early February 2026. The race is rated as a toss-up by nonpartisan election forecasters.

Texas

Primary Date: March 3, 2026
Primary Type: Open primary
Runoff: May 26, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority
Voter ID: Texas requires photo identification to vote
Early Voting: February 17 through February 27, 2026
Absentee Voting: Applications must be submitted by February 20, 2026

Texas will elect a U.S. senator, governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and all 38 U.S. House representatives in November 2026. The Senate race features the most expensive and competitive Republican primary in the state’s recent history.

U.S. Senate – Republican Primary: Incumbent Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but faces a competitive primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt of Houston. The race is expected to go to a May runoff between Cornyn and Paxton, as no candidate is polling close to 50 percent.

John Cornyn was first elected to the Senate in 2002. He previously served as Texas attorney general and as a justice on the Texas Supreme Court. Cornyn has raised $35 million and has received endorsements from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and numerous Senate Republicans. On the economy, Cornyn has focused on job creation and supporting Texas businesses through reduced federal regulation. On immigration, Cornyn voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included $13.5 billion in reimbursements to Texas for border security operations and has called for securing the border before considering changes to immigration law. On federal spending, Cornyn supported the budget bill that included tax cuts and border security funding while reducing spending on some domestic programs.

Ken Paxton has served as Texas attorney general since 2015. He survived an impeachment trial in the Texas Legislature in 2023 and has been a vocal supporter of President Trump’s policies. Paxton has raised $10 million and has positioned himself as a conservative alternative to Cornyn. On the economy, Paxton has emphasized fighting federal regulatory overreach and protecting Texas businesses from what he describes as Democratic economic policies. On immigration, Paxton has been an aggressive advocate for strict border enforcement and has filed numerous lawsuits challenging federal immigration policies. On federal spending, Paxton has called for major cuts to federal agencies and programs he describes as wasteful while increasing border security and defense spending.

Wesley Hunt was elected to the U.S. House in 2022 and represents Texas’s 38th congressional district. Hunt, a U.S. Army veteran, has raised $8 million and is positioning himself as a younger alternative who can appeal to both establishment Republicans and Trump supporters. On the economy, Hunt has focused on reducing inflation and creating jobs through tax cuts and deregulation. On immigration, Hunt supports strict border enforcement and expanded border wall construction. On federal spending, Hunt has called for reducing the federal deficit through spending cuts to domestic programs.

Five other Republicans are also running: John Adefope, Anna Bender, Virgil Bierschwale, Sara Canady, and Gulrez Khan.

Polling shows Cornyn and Paxton in a statistical tie at approximately 30 percent each, with Hunt at 12 percent and 37 percent of voters undecided as of early February 2026. President Trump has not endorsed any candidate but has said both Cornyn and Paxton are good friends. His endorsement is considered critical to determining the runoff winner.

U.S. Senate – Democratic Primary: U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and State Representative James Talarico of Austin are competing for the Democratic nomination.

Jasmine Crockett was elected to the U.S. House in 2022 and has gained national attention as a vocal critic of the Trump administration. She previously served in the Texas House and worked as an attorney. On the economy, Crockett has called for middle-class tax relief and increased wages through federal minimum wage increases. On immigration, Crockett supports comprehensive immigration reform that includes border security measures and a pathway to legal status for some immigrants. On federal spending, Crockett has called for reducing defense spending and increasing investments in health care, education, and infrastructure.

James Talarico was elected to the Texas House in 2018 and worked as a middle school teacher before entering politics. On the economy, Talarico has focused on affordability and fighting corporate concentration through antitrust enforcement. On immigration, Talarico supports border security combined with immigration reform. On federal spending, Talarico has called for progressive taxation and increased investment in public services.

Ahmad Hassan is also running in the Democratic primary.

Republicans are heavily favored to win the general election in Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. However, Democrats believe the divisive Republican primary could create an opening in November.

Governor: Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term. Abbott has faced minimal opposition in previous elections and is running largely unopposed in the Republican primary. Five Republicans have filed to challenge him, including State Board of Education member Evelyn Brooks, but none are considered serious threats.

Seven Democrats are competing for the nomination, including State Representative Gina Hinojosa of Austin. Hinojosa has campaigned on education funding, corruption reform, and opposition to Abbott‘s school voucher proposals.

March 10, 2026 – Mississippi

Primary Date: March 10, 2026
Primary Type: Open primary
Runoff: April 7, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority
Voter ID: Mississippi requires photo identification to vote
Early Voting: Mississippi does not offer in-person early voting
Absentee Voting: Applications must be submitted in advance; specific deadline varies by county

Mississippi will elect a U.S. senator and all four U.S. House representatives in November 2026. The state’s elections are expected to favor Republican candidates, as Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2008.

U.S. Senate: Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is seeking a third term. She faces a primary challenge from Sarah Adlakha. Three Democrats are competing for the nomination: Scott Colom, Priscilla W. Till, and Albert R. Littell.

Hyde-Smith was appointed to the Senate in 2018 and won elections in 2018 and 2020. She has focused her campaigns on agricultural issues, support for President Trump’s policies, and conservative social values.

U.S. House – District 2: Democratic incumbent Bennie Thompson faces primary challenges from Evan Turnage, an antitrust attorney who formerly served as counsel to Senators Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren, and Pertis Williams III. Thompson has represented Mississippi’s 2nd congressional district since 1993. Turnage has criticized Thompson‘s tenure and called for new leadership.

District 2 is the poorest congressional district in Mississippi and one of the poorest in the nation. The district has a majority-Black population and consistently elects Democrats. The primary winner is likely to win the general election.

March 17, 2026 – Illinois

Primary Date: March 17, 2026
Primary Type: Closed primary
Voter ID: Illinois does not require photo identification to vote
Early Voting: Began February 5, 2026 in most counties; dates vary by jurisdiction
Absentee Voting: Applications must be submitted by specified deadlines; details vary by county

Illinois will elect a U.S. senator, governor, and all 17 U.S. House representatives in November 2026. The Senate race features the first open seat since 2010.

U.S. Senate: Democratic Senator Dick Durbin announced on April 23, 2025 that he would not seek re-election after serving in the Senate since 1997. Durbin held the Senate’s second-ranking Democratic leadership position for much of his tenure.

Democratic Primary: The three leading candidates are Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton, U.S. Representative Robin Kelly of the 2nd congressional district, and U.S. Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi of the 8th congressional district.

Juliana Stratton received the endorsement of Governor J.B. Pritzker immediately after announcing her candidacy on April 24, 2025. Stratton previously served in the Illinois House. On the economy, Stratton has called for reducing living costs and expanding middle-class opportunities through job creation and education programs. On immigration, Stratton supports comprehensive immigration reform. On federal spending, Stratton has emphasized protecting federal programs that support working families while finding efficiencies in government operations.

Robin Kelly was elected to Congress in 2013 and has focused her legislative career on gun violence prevention and health care access. On the economy, Kelly has called for supporting small businesses and creating jobs through infrastructure investment. On immigration, Kelly supports border security combined with immigration reform. On federal spending, Kelly has called for progressive taxation and increased investment in education and health care.

Raja Krishnamoorthi was elected to Congress in 2017 and has focused on oversight of the Trump administration. On the economy, Krishnamoorthi has proposed an American Dream economic plan that includes homeowner tax credits and expanding access to education. On immigration, Krishnamoorthi has criticized aggressive enforcement tactics and supports comprehensive reform. On federal spending, Krishnamoorthi has called for accountability in government spending while protecting social programs.

Fourteen total candidates are running in the Democratic primary. Krishnamoorthi has raised the most money, with approximately $21 million in his campaign account.

Republican Primary: Six Republicans are competing for the nomination. The field has not received the same level of attention as the Democratic primary because Illinois has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, and Democrats are favored to hold the seat.

Governor: Governor: Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzker is seeking a third term, which no Democratic governor has achieved in Illinois history. Four Republicans are competing in the Republican primary: Darren Bailey, Ted Dabrowski, Rick Heidner, and James Mendrick.

Conclusion

The March 2026 primaries represent the opening test of candidate strength in the 2026 midterm election cycle. Results in these five states will allocate the first delegates and establish which candidates advance to the November 3, 2026 general election.

North Carolina and Texas feature the two most competitive Senate races, with both states’ outcomes potentially determining which party controls the Senate in 2027. Arkansas and Mississippi will likely maintain Republican control of their statewide offices. Illinois is expected to elect a Democrat to succeed Dick Durbin.

The primaries operate under the voting eligibility and procedural rules that govern American elections. Voter identification requirements, registration deadlines, and early voting procedures vary by state. Delegates are allocated through proportional or winner-take-all systems depending on state party rules.

November 3, 2026 will determine the final winners for offices that control federal budgets exceeding 6 trillion dollars, Senate confirmations of judicial nominees and executive branch officials, and state policies on taxation, law enforcement, education, and border enforcement. The March primaries begin that process.

Polling organizations conduct surveys throughout U.S. election cycles to estimate voter preferences, issue priorities, and likely turnout. These surveys appear in media reports, campaign planning, and public discussions leading up to elections. Major firms use different sampling techniques, weighting methods, and data collection modes, which affect their results. Accuracy records from past elections provide data on how closely polls matched final vote shares and winner outcomes. The following sections detail the prominent polling organizations, their methodologies, and documented performance in recent cycles.

Major Polling Organizations

Several national polling firms release regular surveys during election years. Quinnipiac University Poll operates from Connecticut and uses random digit dialing with live interviewers for national and state-level surveys.

New York Times/Siena College conducts polls for the newspaper, often ranking highly in post-election evaluations.

Marquette University Law School Poll, based in Wisconsin, produces frequent national and battleground-state surveys.

Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey runs telephone and online surveys. YouGov employs online panels recruited through various methods. Emerson College Polling releases frequent national and state polls.

Other active firms include Washington Post/ABC News, Pew Research Center, and university-based operations such as those at Harvard/Harris and CBS News/YouGov.

Aggregators compile and rate these polls. RealClearPolitics maintains an average of major national and state surveys. Silver Bulletin (formerly FiveThirtyEight) tracks historical accuracy and assigns ratings based on past performance. These aggregators do not conduct original polling but provide context for individual firm results.

Polling Methodologies Explained

Polling firms select samples using different approaches. Random digit dialing generates phone numbers (landline and cell) to reach respondents. Online panels recruit participants through opt-in methods or address-based sampling. Some firms combine modes, such as telephone with online follow-up.

Weighting adjusts raw data to match known population characteristics. Firms use U.S. Census Bureau data or voter file information for variables including age, gender, race, education level, region, and party registration. Likely voter models screen respondents based on registration status, past voting history, self-reported intent to vote, and attention to the election.

Margin of error is calculated from sample size. A survey of 1,000 adults typically carries a margin of ±3 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Subgroup results (e.g., by age or party) have larger margins. Response rates have declined over time, requiring adjustments for non-response bias.

Collection modes include live telephone interviews, automated interactive voice response, online questionnaires, and text-to-web links. Firms update methodologies as technology and response patterns change, such as increasing cell phone sampling after landline dominance ended.

Accuracy Records and Performance

Accuracy is evaluated by comparing poll-predicted vote shares to final election results and by correct winner calls. Aggregators measure average error (plus-minus deviation) across multiple races. In the 2020 presidential election, some firms showed higher errors on national vote share, while state-level polls varied. The 2022 midterms produced stronger overall performance, with many national and battleground polls within typical margins.

Specific firms have records tracked by aggregators. New York Times/Siena College polls ranked among the lowest average errors in recent cycles. Marquette University Law School Poll and Monmouth University Polling Institute received high marks for transparency and accuracy in 2020 and 2022. Quinnipiac University Poll and Emerson College Polling appear in top tiers on multiple aggregator lists. YouGov has shown consistent performance in online-mode comparisons.

Errors occur due to sampling variability, late voter shifts, turnout differences from models, and non-response patterns. No firm achieves perfect prediction; historical data shows average national error around 3–4 points in recent presidential cycles, with state races often higher.

Conclusion

Polling organizations use varied sampling, weighting, and collection methods to estimate voter sentiment before elections. Accuracy records from cycles such as 2020, 2022, and 2024 offer data for evaluating reliability.

As the 2026 midterm elections approach, with primaries starting in March 2026 and the general election on November 3, 2026, these surveys will measure preferences on congressional, gubernatorial, and state races.

Readers can monitor major firms and aggregators to follow developments as the cycle unfolds.

The 2026 elections will occur in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the general election set for November 3, 2026. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be contested, which under the Constitution handle passage of federal budgets exceeding 6 trillion dollars annually and oversight of executive actions. 35 seats in the U.S. Senate will be up for election, which confirm over 1,200 executive appointees and federal judges each term.

36 states and territories will elect governors, who administer state budgets totaling over 3 trillion dollars combined and set policies on education funding, law enforcement, and taxes. Numerous state legislative seats, attorneys general, and local offices will also be filled.

Primary elections to select party nominees begin on March 3, 2026, in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas, followed by Mississippi on March 10, 2026, and Illinois on March 17, 2026, with the primary season extending through mid-September 2026 in some states.

These 2026 midterm elections—contested across every state with control of the House, one-third of the Senate, dozens of governorships, and countless state offices—will be decided by voters operating under eligibility and procedural rules that trace back more than two centuries.

The framework governing who can register, where and how ballots are cast, and what safeguards apply has been shaped by specific constitutional amendments, federal statutes, and state-level decisions. The following sections outline the key changes in U.S. voting eligibility and procedures from the colonial era forward.

Colonial Period and Early Republic

In the British American colonies, voting for colonial assemblies was limited to free white men who owned property or paid taxes, as set by colonial charters and governors. The Virginia House of Burgesses, convened in 1619, operated under these restrictions. Women, enslaved persons, indentured servants, and most free Black men were excluded from voting in colonial elections. After independence in 1776, states adopted constitutions that generally continued the same eligibility rules for free white men. New Jersey’s constitution permitted property-owning women to vote until the legislature enacted a change in 1807. Between the 1820s and 1856, state constitutional conventions or legislative acts removed property and tax qualifications for white men in most states. By 1856, nearly all white adult males in the United States met state voting requirements.

Amendments Following the Civil War

Ratification of the 14th Amendment on July 9, 1868, defined citizenship as birth or naturalization in the United States and subject to its jurisdiction. Ratification of the 15th Amendment on February 3, 1870, stated that the right to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any state on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude. During the period known as Reconstruction from 1865 to 1877, federal military presence and enforcement acts enabled Black men to register, vote, and hold elected office in Southern states. After withdrawal of federal troops in 1877, Southern state legislatures enacted poll taxes, literacy tests, grandfather clauses, and other requirements. These state measures reduced Black voter registration to very low levels in many Southern jurisdictions by the early 20th century. Supreme Court decisions addressed state voting restrictions, including Williams v. Mississippi in 1898, which upheld literacy tests and poll taxes under certain conditions.

19th Amendment and Amendments on Age and D.C. Voting

Ratification of the 19th Amendment on August 18, 1920, stated that the right to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any state on account of sex. Organized efforts for the amendment included the Seneca Falls Convention held in July 1848 and continued through state-level suffrage laws and national campaigns. Ratification of the 23rd Amendment on March 29, 1961, provided that residents of the District of Columbia shall have electors in presidential elections as if it were a state. Ratification of the 26th Amendment on July 1, 1971, stated that the right to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any state on account of age for citizens 18 years of age or older.

Native American Citizenship and Voting

Enactment of the Indian Citizenship Act on June 2, 1924, granted United States citizenship to all Native Americans born within the territorial limits of the United States. Several states continued to prohibit voting by Native Americans after 1924. Arizona and New Mexico maintained restrictions until state supreme court rulings or legislative changes in 1948.

Voting Rights Act of 1965 and Subsequent Federal Laws

Congress enacted the Voting Rights Act on August 6, 1965, which prohibited literacy tests and other specified practices and required federal preclearance for changes to election laws in certain jurisdictions. Renewals of the Voting Rights Act by Congress occurred in 1970, 1975, 1982, and 2006. The Supreme Court decision in Shelby County v. Holder on June 25, 2013, invalidated the coverage formula used to determine jurisdictions subject to preclearance. Congress enacted the National Voter Registration Act on May 20, 1993, which required states to provide voter registration opportunities at motor vehicle agencies and public assistance offices. Congress enacted the Help America Vote Act on October 29, 2002, which established minimum standards for voting systems, provisional ballots, and voter registration databases.

Absentee, Mail-in, and Early Voting Procedures

Absentee voting for soldiers was authorized during the Civil War and later extended by state laws to civilians. Many states adopted no-excuse absentee voting and early in-person voting statutes beginning in the late 20th century. In 2020, 46 states permitted no-excuse mail-in ballots in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. States have maintained or modified mail-in and early voting rules from 2020 into 2026.

Conclusion

The U.S. Constitution and federal statutes establish the basic requirements for voting eligibility: U.S. citizenship and age 18 or older on Election Day. States retain authority to set residency rules, registration processes, voter identification standards, polling place operations, ballot counting procedures, and the use of mail-in, absentee, and early voting options. These state-level variations persist across the 50 states and the District of Columbia as of February 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections, with primaries beginning in March 2026 and the general election on November 3, 2026, will directly apply this long-established combination of federal and state provisions. The outcome will determine who controls the House of Representatives (responsible for originating federal spending bills exceeding 6 trillion dollars annually), who holds the Senate seats that confirm executive appointees and judges, and who occupies the 36 governorships that oversee state budgets totaling more than 3 trillion dollars combined, along with policies affecting taxes, law enforcement, education funding, and border enforcement in their jurisdictions. The results of these elections will shape the immediate direction of national and state governance for the next two years.

Issue #3 will focus on the 2026 midterm elections, the first major national vote since the 2024 presidential cycle and a direct test of the current administration’s agenda midway through its term. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, 35 seats in the U.S. Senate, 36 gubernatorial races across states and territories, and thousands of state legislative and local offices will be on the ballot on November 3, 2026. Primaries begin as early as March 3, 2026, in states including Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas, setting the stage for a year-long battle that will determine control of Congress, state executive branches, and key policy levers.

These elections carry substantial stakes: the House originates federal spending bills exceeding 6 trillion dollars annually, the Senate confirms executive appointees and judges, and governors oversee state budgets totaling over 3 trillion dollars combined while directing policies on taxes, law enforcement, education funding, and border enforcement in their jurisdictions. The outcomes will shape the final two years of the current presidential term and influence the national direction heading into 2028.

Coverage in this issue will examine the historical rules and procedures that govern who votes and how, the timeline of contests, and the offices at stake—providing factual context for readers to track developments as primaries unfold and the general election approaches. Stay tuned for detailed breakdowns in upcoming articles.